Puntua el artículo otorgandole estrellas, el artículo ganador será el que tenga mas estrllas ptorgadas por los lectores.
Este trabajo pertenece a nuestro amigo Hector Pérez, de Barcelona y con 38 años, es graduado en ciencias Empresariales y master en Marketing e investigación de mercados, actualmente se dedica a la docencia.
Incertidumbre en partidos de tenis profesional.
1. Introducción general
En el tenis, como en cualquier otro deporte, resulta altamente complejo valorar todos los factores a tener en cuenta para la determinación de una serie de resultados concretos. Paliar con esta afirmación, valorable en mayor o menor medida para un enfoque tanto como cortoplacista, como a largo plazo, será la gran piedra angular de nuestro proyecto.
El trabajo que queremos compartir con el lector, está claramente motivado en encontrar, valorar, medir y comparar los diferentes conceptos a tener en cuenta dentro de un partido de tenis, desde aquellos que afectan en el juego a través de los diferentes golpeos de bola, hasta los físicos y sociales. No obstante, los factores que influyen directamente en los deportistas no serán los únicos que tendremos en cuenta, dado que consideramos que en el deporte de la raqueta, existen múltiples aspectos influenciables en el resultado final de un partido, y que se podrían considerar como indirectos.
La obtención de datos y su posterior puesta en conjunto, se establecerá por criterios propios del grupo de trabajo, y serán citados uno a uno a lo largo del proyecto.
Paralelamente, el foco principal para la determinación de las deportistas objeto de estudio, estará puesto en el famoso circuito WTA (Women’s Tennis Association), pretendiendo así fomentar y dar voz al deporte femenino, dado que a menudo es el gran olvidado a nivel de repercusión mediática.
Por último, cabe destacar que se utilizarán conocimientos en lógica borrosa (fuzzy logic) como herramienta principal para el manejo de la información recolectada. Creemos que esta técnica es la ideal para este tipo de análisis, dada su contrastación previa en el ámbito deportivo y en la toma de decisiones.
2. Objetivos
Como hemos mencionado unas líneas atrás, el objetivo principal de este proyecto, no es otro que cuantificar, determinar el nivel de importancia y comparar los diferentes aspectos que influyen en un partido de tenis, los cuales servirán posteriormente para obtener información sobre cuales son las posibilidades de llevarse la victoria para cada uno de los dos perfiles enfrentados.
Pretendemos así generar una herramienta que nos determine, con una cierta precisión dentro de las posibilidades de información a nuestro alcance, las distancias entre cada una de las jugadoras y el perfil ideal dadas unas condiciones concretas (de pista, ambientales, psicológicas, etc).
De esta forma, creemos poder obtener un enfoque metodológicamente distinto al que se utiliza tradicionalmente para obtener porcentajes de victoria para cada tenista, ya que a menudo, se tienen en cuenta los datos estadísticos de forma prácticamente exclusiva.
Contrariamente, nuestro estudio quiere aportar valoraciones subjetivas de forma medible, y añadir así mayor precisión a todo aquello que aparentemente la estadística tradicional tiene dificultades para medir, como podría ser la calidad de un determinado golpe técnico, el nivel de concentración de un/a tenista o la altura ideal del bote de la pelota para cada una.
3. Selección de factores a tener en cuenta para el establecimiento de perfiles determinados
Uno de los procesos esenciales en este tipo de estudios basados en modelos derivados de la lógica borrosa, es el proceso de recolección de información generada por parte de una serie de expertos contrastados en la materia objeto de estudio.
No obstante, dado el tiempo del que disponemos para llevar a cabo este proyecto, y el orden de preferencias a la hora de escoger el núcleo de nuestro estudio, se nos hace imposible poder hacer un seguimiento valorativo a los potenciales expertos en la materia. Sin embargo, cabe destacar el hecho de que este trabajo pretende ser el inicio de una futura investigación a desarrollar en la que si seríamos partidarios de realizar una profunda búsqueda de expertos (médicos, fisioterapeutas, jugadores, entrenadores, etc), para posteriormente tener muy en cuenta sus opiniones a la hora de extraer conclusiones.
A pesar de no contar con la voz del grupo o grupos de expertos que desearíamos, si hemos realizado una búsqueda a través de bibliografía y artículos técnicos, donde se comparten opiniones entorno a los diferentes aspectos que influyen en cualquier partido.
Tras realizar la búsqueda y poner en común los aspectos más destacados en los diferentes documentos encontrados, se ha decidió retener aquellos que tuvieran gran significación en el juego, y además fueran fácilmente valorables por nuestra experiencia propia, que dicho sea de paso, nunca podrá ser comparable a la de uno o más grupos de expertos.
De esta forma, los siguientes factores, cualidades y características, son las que se han tenido en cuenta para cada una de las tenistas, a la hora de proceder al estudio de posibilidades de victoria:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | ||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | Comportamiento ganador | Altura de bote | |||
| Derecha | Resto | Aceleración | Fortaleza mental | Velocidad de bote | |||
| Revés | Passing shot | Agilidad | Disciplina | Deslizamiento | |||
| Smash | Contradejada | Fuerza | Seriedad | H2H | |||
| Volea | Subida a red | Potencia | Concentración | Nivel de confianza | |||
| Servicio | Fondo Físico | Victoria ante TOP10 | |||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | |||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | |||||||
De entre todos ellos, se pueden observar 4 grandes bloques diferenciales:
- Golpes: Hace referencia a la calidad en el gesto técnico y la efectividad en cada uno de estos tipos de golpeo de bola. Se pueden diferenciar entre los golpes básicos, que son aquellos que forman parte de las acciones de peloteo habitual de cada punto, y los golpes situacionales, que hacer referencia a aquellos tipos de golpes que vienen dados por una situación concreta del juego, como puede ser el saque, el resto o las subidas a la red. Se presupone, que la calidad en el gesto de este tipo de golpes no variará por el tipo de pista donde se dispute un partido, la superficie o la importancia del torneo que se disputa. Sin embargo, la efectividad de los mismos si podría afectar, especialmente por el tipo de superficie, aunque ese aspecto lo tendremos en cuenta más adelante.
- Físico: Estos aspectos tienen que ver con la situación física en que se encuentra cada una de las tenistas a la hora de ser valoradas. Al igual que en el caso de los diferentes golpes, se entiende que las habilidades físicas de cada jugadora no deberían variar por el tipo de superficie donde se compita, ya que son características intrínsecas de cada una. Algunos aspectos como el deslizamiento sobre la pista, que es habitualmente utilizado para realizar algunos golpes, si podría afectar, aunque este aspecto se valorará como un concepto de habilidad de movimiento más adelante.
- Psico-Social: El tercer bloque, agrupa aquellas características de carácter psicológico y del entorno de cada jugadora. Aunque creemos que podría llegar a tener una mínima influencia variable por el tipo de superficie donde se compite (especialmente en lo psicológico y emocional), también será considerado como aspectos de carácter no variable.
- Otros: Esta última agrupación, a diferencia de las anteriores, si valora algunos aspectos variables al tipo de pista como la altura de bote óptima de cada jugadora, la velocidad del mismo o la facilidad de deslizamiento por la superficie. Paralelamente, se tendrán en cuenta aspectos como el “Head to Head” (H2H), que revela los resultados previos de partidos entre ambas tenistas, o los beneficios en términos de confianza que siempre supone ganar a una tenista local o del top 10 del ranking mundial (ranking individuales WTA).
4. Representación del perfil ideal para cada superficie
Una vez seleccionados los factores que tendremos en cuenta para definir el perfil de cada una de las jugadoras con las que trabajaremos, nuestro trabajo se centra en definir el perfil de la jugadora óptima capaz de ganar a cualquier contrincante bajo las condiciones del torneo en cuestión y los elementos que influyen en el partido.
Para ellos, llevamos a cabo la definición de un perfil ideal de tenista bajo dichas condiciones, con número n de cualidades, que formarán un conjunto C.
C = {C1, C2, …, Cn}
Procedemos, por tanto, a valorar ese conjunto de cualidades que definen el perfil ideal de la jugadora, siendo 0 la peor valoración (pésimo) y 10 la mejor (perfecto).
Para ello, usaremos los diferentes factores mencionados en el apartado anterior (punto 3: selección de factores a tener en cuenta para el establecimiento de perfiles determinados), definiendo el perfil ideal a partir de aquellos conceptos fijos y variables.
De esta forma, las valoraciones que se realicen sobre aquellos aspectos que no se ven afectados por el tipo de superficie, se mantendrán estables en todos los partidos que analicemos. Muy a menudo, estos aspectos no variables, buscarán la máxima valoración (1) en todas sus valoraciones del perfil ideal, como es el caso de la calidad técnica en los golpes o los diferentes aspectos del bloque físico.
El verdadero quid de la cuestión, estará en definir cuales son las diferentes valoraciones de los aspectos variables en cada superficie de juego, como la altura o la velocidad del bote, y especialmente, acotar bien la ponderación, de forma que se acerque notablemente a la importancia real.
Sin más preámbulos, procedemos a definir la puntuación de los factores fijos para el perfil ideal, válidos para cualquier tipo de superficie y torneo:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 1 | Comportamiento ganador | 1 | Altura de bote | X | |||||
| Derecha | 1 | Resto | 1 | Aceleración | 1 | Fortaleza mental | 1 | Velocidad de bote | X | |||
| Revés | 1 | Passing shot | 1 | Agilidad | 1 | Disciplina | 1 | Deslizamiento | X | |||
| Smash | 1 | Contradejada | 1 | Fuerza | 1 | Seriedad | 1 | H2H | 1 | |||
| Volea | 1 | Subida a red | 1 | Potencia | 1 | Concentración | 1 | Nivel de confianza | 1 | |||
| Servicio | 1 | Fondo Físico | 1 | Victoria ante TOP10 | 1 | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | 1 | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | 1 | |||||||||||
De esta forma, observamos pues como se presupone que la búsqueda del perfil ideal, buscará la máxima puntuación en los aspectos fijos, entendiendo que nunca se contraponen entre ellos. Entendemos así, que el hecho de tener un revés perfecto, el mejor que se haya visto jamás, no debería impedir que la potencia o la disciplina del jugador fuese penosa o bien perfecta también, tratándose así de combinaciones posibles.
Por lo que a los factores variables se refiere, tomamos en cuenta esencialmente, la altura del bote, la velocidad del mismo y la capacidad de deslizamiento sobre la superficie. A pesar de que visualmente, parece algo poco importante teniendo en cuenta la multitud de aspectos fijos, aunque como hemos mencionado anteriormente, la clave reside en el peso que se le da a estos a través de la ponderación que realizaremos posteriormente. Así pues, podemos adelantar que la ponderación de los elementos variables será muy elevada, puesto que entendemos que estos influyen en multitud de aspectos fijos.
De esta forma, las valoraciones de aspectos variables por superficie serían las siguientes:
| TIERRA BATIDA | PISTA DURA | HIERBA | |||
| Altura de bote | 0.7 | Altura de bote | 0,4 | Altura de bote | 0,3 |
| Velocidad de bote | 0.3 | Velocidad de bote | 0,4 | Velocidad de bote | 0,8 |
| Deslizamiento | 0.8 | Deslizamiento | 0 | Deslizamiento | 0,4 |
4.1. Ponderación de factores
Hasta el momento, a la hora de valorar cada aspecto o cualidad a tener en cuenta, se presuponía que todas ellas tenían el mismo valor. No obstante, como citábamos con anterioridad, en un deporte como el tenis, es evidente que cada aspecto tiene una influencia diferente a los otros en el devenir de un encuentro, razón por la cual, se ha decidido ponderar los factores que tenemos en cuenta por distintos pesos.
Para realizar dichas valoraciones, se realizará una ponderación convexa que nos permita mantenernos en el segmento [0,1]. De esta forma, siendo w el coeficiente para n casos, dividiríamos cada valor wi, i= 1, 2, …, n por su suma, hallando de esta forma:
Es por ese motivo, que a continuación pasaremos a modificar la expresión de la distancia relativa de Hamming añadiendo el concepto de pesos, tal que:
Sin más preámbulos, procedemos a establecer los pesos para cada factor:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 0,5 | Comportamiento ganador | 0,6 | Altura de bote | 1 | |||||
| Derecha | 0,6 | Resto | 0,6 | Aceleración | 0,6 | Fortaleza mental | 0,6 | Velocidad de bote | 1 | |||
| Revés | 0,6 | Passing shot | 0,3 | Agilidad | 0,6 | Disciplina | 0,4 | Deslizamiento | 0,8 | |||
| Smash | 0,4 | Contradejada | 0,4 | Fuerza | 0,4 | Seriedad | 0,4 | H2H | 0,7 | |||
| Volea | 0,6 | Subida a red | 0,4 | Potencia | 0,5 | Concentración | 0,6 | Nivel de confianza | 0,8 | |||
| Servicio | 0,6 | Fondo Físico | 0,4 | Victoria ante TOP10 | 0,5 | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | 0,5 | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | 0,8 | |||||||||||
Esta ponderación, nos dará entonces un sumatorio donde wi = 16,4
5. Selección de tenistas y valoración de perfiles
Previamente a la selección de los cuatros perfiles a estudiar, establecemos una serie de restricciones con el fin principal de facilitar lo máximo posible el conocimiento de las mismas por parte del público general. Se deberán cumplir al menos 2 de estas 3 restricciones para la elección de todos los casos.
Requisitos preestablecidos (previamente al inicio de Roland Garros 2016):
- Seleccionar la mejor tenista española situada en el ranking individual WTA.
- Que se encuentre en el Top10 del ranking individual WTA.
- Que haya logrado un mínimo de victorias de 2 tornes calificados como Premier Mandatory y/o al menos haya alcanzado una final de Grand Slam.
De esta forma, intentado facilitar al máximo conocimiento por parte del lector pero también buscando la máxima precisión en nuestro proceso de valoración de cada una, se escogen las siguientes jugadoras:
- Serena Williams (#1 WTA, EEUU)
- Garbiñe Muguruza (#4 WTA, España / Venezuela)
- Victoria Azarenka (#5 WTA, Bielorrusia)
- Simona Halep (#6 WTA, Rumania)
A partir de esta selección, valoramos cada uno de los cuatro perfiles:
A) Serena Williams:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 0,7 | Comportamiento ganador | 0,9 | Altura de bote | 0,6 | |||||
| Derecha | 0,8 | Resto | 0,8 | Aceleración | 0,6 | Fortaleza mental | 0,8 | Velocidad de bote | 0,7 | |||
| Revés | 0,7 | Passing shot | 0,6 | Agilidad | 0,6 | Disciplina | 0,8 | Deslizamiento | 0,5 | |||
| Smash | 0,9 | Contradejada | 0,6 | Fuerza | 0,8 | Seriedad | 0,9 | H2H | X | |||
| Volea | 0,8 | Subida a red | 0,7 | Potencia | 0,9 | Concentración | 0,8 | Nivel de confianza | X | |||
| Servicio | 0,8 | Fondo Físico | 0,8 | Victoria ante TOP10 | X | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | X | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | X | |||||||||||
B) Garbiñe Muguruza:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 0,6 | Comportamiento ganador | 0,6 | Altura de bote | 0,7 | |||||
| Derecha | 0,7 | Resto | 0,7 | Aceleración | 0,6 | Fortaleza mental | 0,4 | Velocidad de bote | 0,6 | |||
| Revés | 0,8 | Passing shot | 0,8 | Agilidad | 0,7 | Disciplina | 0,6 | Deslizamiento | 0,4 | |||
| Smash | 0,6 | Contradejada | 0,7 | Fuerza | 0,7 | Seriedad | 0,7 | H2H | X | |||
| Volea | 0,6 | Subida a red | 0,6 | Potencia | 0,8 | Concentración | 0,7 | Nivel de confianza | X | |||
| Servicio | 0,7 | Fondo Físico | 0,8 | Victoria ante TOP10 | X | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | X | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | X | |||||||||||
C) Victoria Azarenka:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 0,7 | Comportamiento ganador | 0,9 | Altura de bote | 0,7 | |||||
| Derecha | 0,8 | Resto | 0,9 | Aceleración | 0,6 | Fortaleza mental | 0,8 | Velocidad de bote | 0,8 | |||
| Revés | 0,8 | Passing shot | 0,7 | Agilidad | 0,6 | Disciplina | 0,8 | Deslizamiento | 0,5 | |||
| Smash | 0,8 | Contradejada | 0,6 | Fuerza | 0,8 | Seriedad | 0,8 | H2H | X | |||
| Volea | 0,7 | Subida a red | 0,6 | Potencia | 0,8 | Concentración | 0,6 | Nivel de confianza | X | |||
| Servicio | 0,8 | Fondo Físico | 0,7 | Victoria ante TOP10 | X | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | X | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | X | |||||||||||
D) Simona Halep:
| GOLPES | FÍSICO | PSICO-SOCIAL | OTROS | |||||||||
| Golpes básicos | Golpes situacionales | Velocidad | 0,9 | Comportamiento ganador | 0,7 | Altura de bote | 0,4 | |||||
| Derecha | 0,7 | Resto | 0,8 | Aceleración | 0,8 | Fortaleza mental | 0,8 | Velocidad de bote | 0,4 | |||
| Revés | 0,6 | Passing shot | 0,7 | Agilidad | 0,9 | Disciplina | 0,8 | Deslizamiento | 0,8 | |||
| Smash | 0,7 | Contradejada | 0,8 | Fuerza | 0,5 | Seriedad | 0,9 | H2H | X | |||
| Volea | 0,7 | Subida a red | 0,6 | Potencia | 0,6 | Concentración | 0,7 | Nivel de confianza | X | |||
| Servicio | 0,5 | Fondo Físico | 0,9 | Victoria ante TOP10 | X | |||||||
| Victoria ante tenista local | X | |||||||||||
| Nivel de recuperación | X | |||||||||||
6. Análisis práctico a partir del concepto distancia
La parte final de nuestro proyecto, basada esencialmente en el desarrollo práctico de la información recolectada previamente, ha sido trabajada paralelamente en un documento Excel con el que se ha podido realizar diferentes hipótesis gracias a la variedad de hojas de cálculo y funciones con las que trabajar simultáneamente.
Para empezar dicho trabajo, decidimos separar las diferentes informaciones en tres pestañas de características muy similares, donde se podían ver los pesos, las valoraciones de cada jugadora en forma de subconjuntos borrosos, los cálculos necesarios para trabajar con distancias y el perfil ideal, también en formato de subconjunto borroso. No obstante, como el lector quizás habrá podido intuir, la diferencia esencial está en que cada una pertenece a un tipo de superficie diferente (tierra batida, pista dura o rápida y hierba), y por tanto la altura del bote, su velocidad y las posibilidades de deslizamiento sobre la pista serán los factores que marcarán la diferencia entre cada una.
Diferentes pestañas por tipo de superfície
Línea Superior: Parte del subconjunto borroso del perfil ideal para tierra batida
Línea inferior: Parte del reparto por pesos de los diferentes factores
De esta forma, cualquiera de las tres hojas de cáculo utilizadas, seguirán la estructura y el orden siguiente:
- Subconjunto borroso del perfil ideal
- Reparto por pesos
- Subconjunto borroso de cada uno de los perfiles
- Serena Williams
- Garbiñe Muguruza
- Victoria Azarenka
- Simona Halep
- Cálculo parcial de distancias
Visualmente, las hojas de cálculo acabarán teniendo el siguiente aspecto:
Captura de pantalla extraída de la pestaña perteneciente al subconjunto borroso de pista rápida
Sin ir más lejos, procedemos a realizar diferentes simulaciones entre las últimas ganadoras de torneos WTA Premier Mandatory, Serena Williams y Simona Halep, las cuales comparten características especialmente diferenciadas. Mientras la número uno del mundo es una tenista caracterizada por su potencia, su fuerza y sus rápidos golpes, la tenista rumana se caracteriza por un juego basado en los golpes de fondo de pista, en su resistencia física y velocidad. De esta forma, mientras para Serena Williams, la superficie donde mejor se maneja es la pista rápida, para Simona Halep, la superficie idónea será la de tierra batida.
Para empezar a entender las diferencias en términos de posibilidades de victoria que se pueden obtener entre cada tenista y las diferentes superficies, trabajaremos con el concepto de Distancia Relativa de Hamming, ideal para realizar comparaciones.
Así pues, barajaremos tres diferentes escenarios, el optimista, el conservador y el pesimista, mediante los cuales se verá alterados los diferentes aspectos variables.
|
OPTIMISTA |
||
|
Head to head (% de partidos vencidos a dicha rival) |
8 de 10 (80%) |
0,8 |
|
Nivel de confianza |
Viene de ganar un Grand Slam |
1 |
|
Victoria ante TOP10 |
Ha ganado en el mismo torneo a dos tenista ubicadas en el Top10 del ranking |
1 |
|
Victoria ante tenista local |
Ha ganado a dos tenistas que disputan el torneo en su país |
1 |
|
Nivel de recuperación |
El último partido jugado fue hace 48h, duró 2 sets y transcurrió en 70 minutos |
1 |
|
CONSERVADOR |
||
|
Head to head (% de partidos vencidos a dicha rival) |
3 de 6 (50%) |
0,5 |
|
Nivel de confianza |
Viene de perder en 1/4 de final de un Grand Slam ante otra tenista Top10 |
0,5 |
|
Victoria ante TOP10 |
Ha ganado en el mismo torneo a una tenista ubicadas en el Top10 del ranking |
0,5 |
|
Victoria ante tenista local |
Ha ganado en el mismo torneo a una tenista que disputa el torneo en su país |
0,5 |
|
Nivel de recuperación |
El último partido jugado fue hace 24h, duró 2 sets y transcurrió en 100 minutos |
0,5 |
|
PESIMISTA |
||
|
Head to head (% de partidos vencidos a dicha rival) |
2 de 10 (20%) |
0,2 |
|
Nivel de confianza |
Viene de perder en Segunda Ronda de un Grand Slam ante una tenista Top40 |
0,1 |
|
Victoria ante TOP10 |
No ha ganado en el mismo torneo a ninguna tenista ubicada en el Top10 del ranking |
0 |
|
Victoria ante tenista local |
No ha ganado en el mismo torneo a ninguna tenista que dispute el torneo en su país |
0 |
|
Nivel de recuperación |
El último partido jugado fue hace 18h, duró 3 sets y transcurrió en 125 minutos |
0,3 |
Bajo estas condiciones, se simulan, para las tres superficies, escenarios donde las jugadoras se enfrente en condiciones idénticas (Conservador vs Conservador) y en condiciones diferentes (Optimista vs Pesimista, y viceversa).
Seguidamente, se procede a la simulación, para detectar las diferentes distancias para cada tenista en cada uno de los escenarios a partir de la siguiente tabla:
|
JUGADORA |
ESCENARIO |
DISTANCIA AL IDEAL |
SUPERFICIE |
|
Serena Williams |
Optimista |
0,200 |
TIERRA BATIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Pesimista |
0,366 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Optimista |
0,210 |
PISTA RÁPIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Pesimista |
0,380 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Optimista |
0,184 |
HIERBA |
|
Simona Halep |
Pesimista |
0,391 |
|
JUGADORA |
ESCENARIO |
DISTANCIA AL IDEAL |
SUPERFICIE |
|
Serena Williams |
Conservador |
0,292 |
TIERRA BATIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Conservador |
0,293 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Conservador |
0,302 |
PISTA RÁPIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Conservador |
0,308 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Conservador |
0,276 |
HIERBA |
|
Simona Halep |
Conservador |
0,319 |
|
JUGADORA |
ESCENARIO |
DISTANCIA AL IDEAL |
SUPERFICIE |
|
Serena Williams |
Pesimista |
0,365 |
TIERRA BATIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Optimista |
0,201 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Pesimista |
0,374 |
PISTA RÁPIDA |
|
Simona Halep |
Optimista |
0,216 |
|
|
Serena Williams |
Pesimista |
0,349 |
HIERBA |
|
Simona Halep |
Optimista |
0,227 |
Tras ver los diferentes resultados, queda latente las infinitas posibilidades de análisis y perspectivas de partido que podemos encontrar con este tipo de herramientas. En este caso, gracias al concepto de distancia, obtenemos hasta nueve tipos de patrones de juego posibles, donde debido a los escenarios variables, a menudo puede dominar una u otra tenista, o incluso podemos encontrar planteamientos muy equilibrados.
En este caso, en igualdad de condiciones, Serena Williams será quien, generalmente, se acerque más al ideal, exceptuando el empate técnico que se produce en tierra batida, donde Simona Halep se encuentra muy a gusto a la hora de competir, como se ha descrito anteriormente. La condición de intocable en el número uno mundial de Serena Williams, y su predilección por pistas más rápidas, explican su superioridad sobre el resto de superficies.
Puesto que no trabajamos todavía con datos de expertos, lo realmente interesante es ver como las distancias cambian no solo por disputar un partido donde los factores se igualan pero se cambia la superficie, si no que dentro de una misma superficie, las condiciones técnicas de cada atleta y su trayectoria previa, pueden hacer moverse en diferentes escenarios.
En conclusión, es evidente que poder medir los factores que afectan directa o indirectamente, siendo elementos fijos o variables, en un partido de tenis, nos permite anticiparnos a posibles resultados a través de esta herramienta predictiva.
Lo realmente interesante, será poder continuar desarrollando este tipo de aplicaciones al mundo del deporte, contando con la opinión y validación de expertos, un mayor número de deportistas, un desarrollo técnico de factores superior e, incluso, aplicaciones concretas donde poder aplicar los resultados obtenidos para tomar decisiones.
7. Conclusiones
Al comenzar nuestro proyecto, como ya citamos al inicio de estas líneas, uno de nuestros grandes objetivos a cubrir era la valoración, comparación y medición de los diferentes y complejos factores que afectan a los deportistas en un encuentro de tenis bajo unas circunstancias concretas.
No obstante, creemos francamente que ha sido posible llevar a cabo con cierto éxito esa tarea, sin la determinante ayuda que supone siempre la posible valoración de expertos.
Uno de nuestros mayores quebraderos de cabeza fue realizar una distribución justa entre la ponderación y las valoraciones a seleccionar, para poder obtener unos resultados realistas en la mente del lector.
Sin embargo, creemos que el aspecto clave del éxito de nuestro proyecto ha sido poder llegar a plantear posibles partidos desde una perspectiva distinta, y ver que es posible llevar a cabo un análisis previo de encuentros con cierta facilidad.
Sin ir más lejos, el pasado sábado 4 de Junio, pudimos simular las posibilidades previas de victoria de cada una de las tenistas que disputaban la final del prestigioso torneo de Roland Garros, en la que Garbiñe Muguruza derrotó a Serena Williams. No creemos relevante destacar las valoraciones que obtuvimos, dado que no somos expertos en la materia y la calidad de nuestras valoraciones de cada subconjunto podrían ser más que cuestionables, pero si que nos gustaría destacar como las condiciones de la superficie y las molestias físicas de Serena Williams, nos indicaron un claro acercamiento en la distancia al ideal por parte de la tenista española, hecho que posteriormente pudimos confirmar con su victoria.
De esta forma, creemos que este sistema tiene mucho camino por delante, una interesante proyección y aplicaciones posibles en otros deportes. Desde luego, una vez más, la lógica borrosa nos ha permitido generar una herramienta en el ámbito de la toma de decisiones del mundo del deporte.
8. Bibliografía
v GIL LAFUENTE, Jaime.
Algoritmos para la excelencia. Claves para el éxito en la gestión deportiva.
Editorial Milladoiro.
v ROJAS MORA, Julio C.
Aplicación de nuevas técnicas derivadas de las lógicas multivalentes a la toma de decisiones en el deporte.
Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona (Tesis doctoral).
v BAIGET VIDAL, Ernest.
Valoración funcional y bioenergética de la resistencia específica en jugadores de tenis.
INEFC, Universitat de Barcelona (Tesis doctoral).
v Página web oficial de la Women’s Tennis Association (WTA). Búsqueda general,
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